About PitchProphet

What this is

PitchProphet projects four MLB starting-pitcher metrics — strikeouts, outs/innings, walks and earned runs — for every probable starter on the daily schedule, then grades every one of those projections against the real box score once the game goes final. The graded record, including the misses, is public at /results.

It is free, has no accounts and nothing to install. The engine runs in your browser.

How the model works

Four layers compose into each projection:

• Layer 1 — Baselines. A pitcher's K/9, ERA, BB/9 and expected innings set the raw per-start baseline for each metric.
• Layer 2 — Weather and air density. Temperature, wind and dome status adjust ball flight, scaled by each pitcher's stuff quality.
• Layer 3 — Opponent splits. The opposing lineup's strikeout rate, walk rate and wRC+ versus left- and right-handed pitching shift each projection.
• Layer 4 — Park factors. Ballpark run and strikeout environments tune the final K and ER lines for the venue.

After each game finalizes, the real pitching line is pulled from the box score, every projection is graded, and the residuals feed a guardrailed calibration loop that nudges the model's internal weights toward what the data supports. Every weight stays clamped, so calibration can nudge but never lurch.

Coverage: verified vs baseline fallback

Every probable starter on the slate is shown. Not every one can be matched to a verified profile — a first career start, a name the feed reports ambiguously, or a pitcher with too small a 2026 sample. When that happens the engine substitutes league-average inputs rather than hiding the start, and labels the projection baseline fallback everywhere it appears.

A baseline-fallback projection is never eligible for Prophet Locks. High-conviction language is reserved for starts where the pitcher's identity, sample and handedness are all verified.

Data sources

• MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com) — schedules, probable starters, season pitching rates, live game feeds and final box scores. Public, unofficial and unaffiliated with this site.
• Open-Meteo (api.open-meteo.com) — game-time temperature, wind speed and wind direction for each ballpark.
• Baseball Savant / Statcast-derived baselines — the hand-maintained Stuff+ and arsenal-value figures behind Layer 1, refreshed periodically rather than live.
• Park factors — a static per-venue table of run and strikeout environments.

Live season rates refresh daily; where a live sample is too small to trust, the calibrated preseason baseline is used instead and the source is labeled on the projection.

PitchProphet is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Major League Baseball, any club, or any sportsbook.

Responsible use

Projections are statistical estimates, not guarantees, and nothing here is betting, financial or professional advice. If you gamble, do so responsibly and within the law of your jurisdiction. Must be 21+ where applicable. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Projections are a model's best estimate, not a forecast of fact. If you are in the US and gambling has stopped being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is free, confidential and available 24/7: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or chat at ncpgambling.org.

Contact

Questions, corrections and bug reports: hello@pitchprophet.net — or see the contact page. Our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use cover data handling and the rules of the road.