Responsible Use
Effective August 14, 2026
What this tool is for
PitchProphet is a statistical modelling and entertainment tool. It projects what a pitcher is likely to do and then publishes how often it was right. That is the whole product. It does not accept wagers, does not facilitate wagering, does not process payments, and carries no sportsbook referrals.
Not betting or financial advice
Projections are statistical estimates, not guarantees, and nothing here is betting, financial or professional advice. If you gamble, do so responsibly and within the law of your jurisdiction. Must be 21+ where applicable. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
A projection is an expected value with real error around it — our own published mean absolute error is the size of that error, and it is not small. Any decision you make from this site is yours alone, and past model accuracy does not predict future accuracy.
Reading a projection honestly
- A point estimate is not a floor. A 6.2-strikeout projection means the model's expected value is 6.2, not that 6 is likely to be cleared.
- A "Lock" is a ranking of the model's own conviction against its own baseline. It is not a market edge, and it is not compared to any sportsbook line.
- A projection labelled baseline fallback contains no pitcher-specific information. Treat it as a placeholder, not a forecast.
- Small samples move rate stats more than they inform them. Early-season projections lean on preseason baselines for exactly this reason.
If gambling has stopped being fun
In the US, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is free, confidential and available 24/7: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or chat at ncpgambling.org. Outside the US, your national helpline will be listed by GambleAware or your local regulator.
Must be 21+ where applicable. Gambling laws differ by jurisdiction and it is your responsibility to know the ones that apply to you.
What we commit to
- No sportsbook affiliate links, referral codes or revenue-share arrangements.
- No projection is presented as a guaranteed or "sure" outcome, and no copy implies one.
- The full graded record stays public, including the losing stretches.
- Fallback-coverage starts stay labelled everywhere they appear, including on the Locks board.
Owner: PitchProphet editorial | Last reviewed: 2026-08-16 | Model version: v10 | Report a data issue: /contact