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PitchProphet Accuracy Tracker

Every projection is logged and auto-graded against the final box score. No cherry-picking — this is the full record across 199 graded starts (796 metric calls).

51%
Overall hit rate
408-388
All metric calls
42%
Strikeout calls
199
Starts graded

By Metric (all-time)

MetricRecord (W-L)Hit %
Strikeouts (over)84-11542%
Outs / IP (over)87-11244%
Earned Runs (under)108-9154%
Walks (under)129-7065%

Recent Form

341-335
All calls 7d · 50%
69-100
Strikeouts 7d · 41%
84-115
Strikeouts 30d · 42%
84-115
All-time K · 42%

Directional scoring: a strikeout or outs call is a win when the pitcher meets or exceeds the projection; earned-run and walk calls win when the pitcher stays at or under it. Mean absolute error across all metrics: 2.23.

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