Matthew Liberatore

Scouting Profile

Matthew Liberatore profiles as a balanced mid-rotation arm. His 8.5 K/9 sits in the contact-oriented end of the spectrum (36th percentile), backed by a 101 Stuff+ that reads as below-average pure stuff. Command grades at the 22nd percentile (3.2 BB/9), below-average control, over a 5.5-inning average workload. Within the STL rotation he grades as the 1st arm by strikeout rate — the staff’s top bat-misser.

2026 Strikeout Prop Outlook

For strikeout props the baseline lands near 5.2 Ks, but the daily number moves with the matchup: a lineup that whiffs more than average against left-handers pushes it up, a contact-heavy one pulls it down — the L3 opponent split is the single largest swing. Cold air and a pitcher-friendly park add roughly 0.2–0.6 K; a hitter’s park trims the ERA side. The shorter 5.5-inning workload caps counting-stat upside even on high-whiff days.

St. Louis Cardinals Rotation