AJ Smith-Shawver

Pitcher Profile

AJ Smith-Shawver is a right-handed starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves with a Stuff+ score of 106 (above avg — MLB average is 100). Posting 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings, Smith-Shawver demonstrates above-average strikeout rate combined with below-average control (3.5 BB/9). Averaging 5 innings per start, the baseline projection targets 5.3 strikeouts per outing. The league-average ERA baseline (4.5) rounds out a reliable projection profile.

PitchProphet's 4-layer model adjusts Smith-Shawver's 5.3-K baseline daily: L1 season stats → L2 weather & air density → L3 opponent K% splits → L4 park factors. On a neutral day vs. an average lineup, the target lines are 5.3 Ks, 4.5 ERA, 5 IP, and 3.5 BB/9. Colder weather and favorable wind add roughly 0.3–0.8 extra Ks; high-altitude parks like Coors subtract from the ERA side.

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