AJ Smith-Shawver
Scouting Profile
AJ Smith-Shawver profiles as a balanced mid-rotation arm. His 9.5 K/9 sits in the middle of the pack (68th percentile), backed by a 106 Stuff+ that reads as roughly league-average stuff. Command grades at the 14th percentile (3.5 BB/9), below-average control, over a 5-inning average workload. Within the ATL rotation he grades as the 4th arm by strikeout rate.
2026 Strikeout Prop Outlook
For strikeout props the baseline lands near 5.3 Ks, but the daily number moves with the matchup: a lineup that whiffs more than average against right-handers pushes it up, a contact-heavy one pulls it down — the L3 opponent split is the single largest swing. Cold air and a pitcher-friendly park add roughly 0.2–0.6 K; a hitter’s park trims the ERA side. The shorter 5-inning workload caps counting-stat upside even on high-whiff days.
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