Casey Mize

Scouting Profile

Casey Mize profiles as a balanced mid-rotation arm. His 8.5 K/9 sits in the contact-oriented end of the spectrum (36th percentile), backed by a 104 Stuff+ that reads as roughly league-average stuff. Command grades at the 65th percentile (2.5 BB/9), above-average control, over a 5.8-inning average workload. Within the DET rotation he grades as the 4th arm by strikeout rate.

2026 Strikeout Prop Outlook

For strikeout props the baseline lands near 5.5 Ks, but the daily number moves with the matchup: a lineup that whiffs more than average against right-handers pushes it up, a contact-heavy one pulls it down — the L3 opponent split is the single largest swing. Cold air and a pitcher-friendly park add roughly 0.2–0.6 K; a hitter’s park trims the ERA side. A steady 5.8-inning workload gives the counting stats room to accumulate.

Detroit Tigers Rotation