Corbin Burnes

Pitcher Profile

Corbin Burnes is a right-handed starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles with a Stuff+ score of 118 (elite — MLB average is 100). Posting 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings, Burnes demonstrates above-average strikeout rate combined with plus control (1.8 BB/9). Averaging 6.5 innings per start, the baseline projection targets 6.9 strikeouts per outing. The elite ERA baseline (2.9) rounds out a high-upside projection profile.

PitchProphet's 4-layer model adjusts Burnes's 6.9-K baseline daily: L1 season stats → L2 weather & air density → L3 opponent K% splits → L4 park factors. On a neutral day vs. an average lineup, the target lines are 6.9 Ks, 2.9 ERA, 6.5 IP, and 1.8 BB/9. Colder weather and favorable wind add roughly 0.3–0.8 extra Ks; high-altitude parks like Coors subtract from the ERA side.

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