Joe Musgrove

Scouting Profile

Joe Musgrove profiles as an efficient bat-misser who lives in the strike zone. His 9 K/9 sits in the middle of the pack (55th percentile), backed by a 110 Stuff+ that reads as above-average stuff. Command grades at the 89th percentile (2 BB/9), plus control, over a 6.5-inning average workload. Within the SDP rotation he grades as the 1st arm by strikeout rate — the staff’s top bat-misser.

2026 Strikeout Prop Outlook

For strikeout props the baseline lands near 6.5 Ks, but the daily number moves with the matchup: a lineup that whiffs more than average against right-handers pushes it up, a contact-heavy one pulls it down — the L3 opponent split is the single largest swing. Cold air and a pitcher-friendly park add roughly 0.4–0.9 K; a hitter’s park trims the ERA side. A steady 6.5-inning workload gives the counting stats room to accumulate.

San Diego Padres Rotation