Aaron Nola

Scouting Profile

Aaron Nola profiles as a balanced mid-rotation arm. His 9.2 K/9 sits in the middle of the pack (61st percentile), backed by a 115 Stuff+ that reads as elite raw pitch quality. Command grades at the 23rd percentile (3.1 BB/9), below-average control, over a 5.2-inning average workload. Within the PHI rotation he grades as the 4th arm by strikeout rate.

2026 Strikeout Prop Outlook

For strikeout props the baseline lands near 5.3 Ks, but the daily number moves with the matchup: a lineup that whiffs more than average against right-handers pushes it up, a contact-heavy one pulls it down — the L3 opponent split is the single largest swing. Cold air and a pitcher-friendly park add roughly 0.4–0.9 K; a hitter’s park trims the ERA side. The shorter 5.2-inning workload caps counting-stat upside even on high-whiff days.

Philadelphia Phillies Rotation