Aaron Nola

Pitcher Profile

Aaron Nola is a right-handed starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies with a Stuff+ score of 115 (elite — MLB average is 100). Posting 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings, Nola demonstrates above-average strikeout rate combined with plus control (2 BB/9). Averaging 7 innings per start, the baseline projection targets 7.4 strikeouts per outing. The above-average ERA baseline (3.5) rounds out a high-upside projection profile.

PitchProphet's 4-layer model adjusts Nola's 7.4-K baseline daily: L1 season stats → L2 weather & air density → L3 opponent K% splits → L4 park factors. On a neutral day vs. an average lineup, the target lines are 7.4 Ks, 3.5 ERA, 7 IP, and 2 BB/9. Colder weather and favorable wind add roughly 0.3–0.8 extra Ks; high-altitude parks like Coors subtract from the ERA side.

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